Visit：1037 Date：2021-04-19

The bulk carrier capacity in January of this year was the month with the lowest net increase in the fleet in the past ten years. With the strong growth of market demand, for the bulk carrier market in 2018, the worst of the bulk carrier market has passed. .

　　 Commodore Research analyst Jeffrey Landsberg recently stated that January is a special month for the bulk carrier market, because generally speaking, January is the worst period for fleet capacity growth, and there is often a surge in fleet. In the ten years before this year, an average of 115 new bulk carriers joined the fleet every January. However, only about 60 new bulk carriers were delivered in January 2018. In addition, taking into account the factor of dismantling old ships, the fleet has a net increase of about 50 ships this month, which is also the month with the lowest net increase in the fleet in the past decade.

　　 It is worth noting that during the past ten years, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an average of approximately 80 ships in January each year. For the rest of this year, the total monthly newbuilding deliveries and net increments will be greatly reduced.

　　 Overall, the 50 new bulk carriers added last month have been digested by the healthy bulk shipping market. As of the end of January, the freight rates of several types of bulk carriers were similar to those in 2017. Taking into account the normal increase in freight rates in January, the freight rates of Panamax bulk carriers even increased in January, partly because the global coal import demand was very strong that month.

　　Looking forward, in the remaining months of 2018, the average monthly net increase of the bulk carrier fleet may be between 5 and 25 ships, and the monthly growth rate of the bulk carrier fleet will be minimized at the end of the year. Of course, the market will definitely fluctuate greatly, but optimistically, there will be almost no net increase of more than 50 ships.

　　 The worst of this year's bulk carrier fleet growth may have occurred, and this growth coincides with the seasonal decline in total cargo volume. However, the new situation this year is that the fleet growth is far below the level of last January, and the trend that the fleet growth is lower than normal will still appear. At the same time, the prospects for coal, grain, and iron ore trade in the near future are also very optimistic. Although the bulk carrier fleet has grown the worst this year, in the near term, South American grain exports have not yet seen the best growth.

　　 Landsberg predicts that Brazil will export 69 million tons of soybeans in the 2017/18 grain trade cycle, which will far exceed the 63 million tons exported in 2016/17 and dwarf the 54.5 million tons in the previous two years. Most soybean cargoes will be shipped in the next six months, and cargo volumes are expected to be strongest between March and June.

Equally important, Brazil and Argentina are expected to export approximately 64 million tons of coarse grains during the 2017/18 grain trade cycle. This will exceed the 62.5 million tons in 2016/17 and also dwarf the 39 million tons shipped in 2015/16. South American coarse grains are shipped in June, and most cargoes are usually shipped in the second half of the year (usually peaking in September). Overall, the near-term outlook for spot grain shipments in South America is very encouraging. Although the monthly fleet growth was the worst, South American soybean and coarse grain exports performed very strongly. In short, the bulk carrier market will benefit from this.